Bank of Canada Holds Overnight Rate…By Dr. Sherry Cooper

General Krishna Menon 28 Jan

BANK OF CANADA HOLDS OVERNIGHT RATE AS EXPECTED, BUT APPEARS TO BE LESS CONFIDENT IN THE STRENGTH OF THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK.

Bank of Canada Holds Steady Despite Economic Slowdown

In a more dovish statement, the Bank of Canada maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1.75% for the tenth consecutive time. Today’s decision was widely expected as members of the Governing Council have signalled that the Bank still believes that the Canadian economy is resilient, despite the marked slowdown in growth in the fourth quarter of last year that has spilled into the early part of this year. The economy has underperformed the forecast in the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR).

In today’s MPR, the Bank estimates growth of only 0.3% in Q4 of 2019 and 1.3%in the first quarter of 2020. Exports fell late last year, and business investment appears to have weakened after a strong Q3, reflecting a decline in business confidence. Job creation has slowed, and indicators of consumer confidence and spending have been much softer than expected.

The one bright light has been residential investment, which was robust through most of 2019, moderating to a still-solid pace in the fourth quarter only because of a dearth of newly listed properties for sale.

The central bank’s press release stated that “Some of the slowdown in growth in late 2019 was related to temporary factors that include strikes, poor weather, and inventory adjustments. The weaker data could also signal that global economic conditions have been affecting Canada’s economy to a greater extent than was predicted. Moreover, during the past year, Canadians have been saving a larger share of their incomes, which could signal increased consumer caution which could dampen consumer spending but help to alleviate financial vulnerabilities at the same time.”

The January MPR states that over the projection horizon (2020 and 2021), “business investment and exports are anticipated to improve as oil transportation capacity expands, and the impact of trade policy headwinds on global growth diminishes. Household spending is projected to strengthen, driven by solid growth of both the population and household disposable income.” Growth is expected to be 1.6% in 2019 and 2020 and is anticipated to strengthen to 2.0% in 2021.

Inflation has remained at roughly the Bank’s target of 2%, and is expected to continue at that pace.

Also from the MPR: “The level of housing activity remains solid across most of Canada, although recent indicators suggest that residential investment growth has slowed from its previously strong pace. Demand remains robust in Quebec, where the labour market has been strong. In Ontario and British Columbia, population growth is boosting housing demand. In contrast, Alberta’s housing market continues to adjust to challenges in the oil and gas sector. Nationally, house prices have continued to increase and should strengthen slightly in the near term, consistent with the responses to the Bank’s recent Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations.”

Bottom Line: The Canadian dollar sold off on the release of this statement and I believe there is a downside risk to the Bank of Canada forecast. Today’s release is a more dovish statement than last month, showing less confidence in the outlook. The Governing Council did express concern that the recent weakness in growth could be more persistent than their current forecast, saying that “the Bank will be paying particular attention to developments in consumer spending, the housing market, and business investment.” They also raised estimates of slack in the economy and dropped language about the current rate being appropriate.

According to Bloomberg News, today’s Governing Council comments “are a departure from recent communications in which officials sought to accentuate the positives of an economy that had been running near capacity and was deemed resilient in the face of global uncertainty. While Wednesday’s decision still leaves the Bank of Canada with the highest policy rate among major advanced economies, markets may interpret the statement as an attempt to, at the very least, open the door for a future move.”

DR. SHERRY COOPER

Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
Sherry is an award-winning authority on finance and economics with over 30 years of bringing economic insights and clarity to Canadians.

Technology in Mortgages and Real Estate by Eitan Pinsky

General Krishna Menon 21 Jan

Technology in Mortgages and Real Estate

Technology is already playing a huge role in the mortgage industry. In the past, mortgage applications had to be physically taken by hand and faxed in (what’s fax anyways?!)… It may soon by possible, with technology’s help, for borrowers to be able to fill out their own application and send it, along with all supporting documentation, straight to lenders without a mortgage professional’s help – kind of scary.

On the Realtor side, there is DocuSign, Realtor.ca, Zillow, and a host of other technology driven solutions that help Realtors be more efficient in their business. However, just like in mortgages, it’s coming to a point where buyers and sellers may see value in going to discount brokerages such as Redfin.

Let’s first look at the mortgage side.

Quicken Loans’ Rocket Mortgage in the States started out as an online-only mortgage application tool. The promise is faster service, with little headache, and everything done “from the comfort of your own home.”

In Canada, Scotiabank just rolled out their eHOME Mortgage application. RBC has had a Pre-Qualification Application for a year and TD rolled out their Digital Mortgage Application in early 2019.

Our own parent mortgage company, Dominion Lending Centres, brought out their “My Mortgage Toolbox” application for Mortgage Brokers to use, and other Broker houses are fast on the trail. All lenders are trying to capitalize on a Millennial’s and Generation Z’s comfort level with providing their personal information to a computer system.

The promise with all of these digital tools is to make a borrower’s mortgage journey easier, and with how technology is progressing, this digital experience is going to keep getting better and better.

Unfortunately, as with any process change, problems arise…

The first and most glaring issue with the digital mortgage experience is that because mortgages are complex, with timelines to follow and anxiety to manage, borrowers are continually requesting human interaction to answer their questions. Rocket Mortgage’s own website now advertises being able to chat online with a specialist right up front.

Secondly, although digital applications promise speed and ease of use, all mortgage files still have to have “eyes” on an application. We’re not there yet (nor will we be for the foreseeable future) where humans do not have to touch mortgage applications for final approval. This human requirement means that a mortgage file must wait in queue to be approved.

Lastly, if any file has the slightest hiccough and doesn’t conform to exactly what the computer systems need to see, an expert will have to be called in during the process to troubleshoot. As an aside, the “experts” who look at these files are salaried individuals; more on that later.

All-in-all, technology alone is not changing the mortgage market.

On the Realtor side, the biggest issue with using Redfin, or relying too much on technology driven companies, is that the Realtors who work there are most likely going to be sub-par… Yeah, I said it… Just like 1% and 2% real estate companies, if someone is working for half the commission, they are, by nature, not going to be as good or competent as someone who prides themselves on working for their due. Don’t get me wrong, there is a time and a place for those 1% and 2% real estate companies (it’s obvious due to them being around) but I believe they are not the best choice for the vast majority of clientele

Additionally, I firmly believe that in life, we get what we pay for. The best advisers and salespeople will gravitate to where they are better compensated. Salaried individuals and discount mortgage and real estate professionals will invariably move to become independent if they are any good. If they are just so-so, bad at their jobs, or are just happy to provide the bare minimum in service, they stay and let someone else hunt for business.

Technology as a Benefit:
There are ways that technology is being used for the benefit of borrowers.

The first is that in our hyper connected world, a borrower’s credit, income, and down payment can all be verified at the touch of a button. Mortgage Brokers can already pull someone’s credit bureau in seconds, and there are also services to allow us to get 3-months of bank statements for down payment verification with a client’s permission. The last step is to have our systems validate income by way of a national employer registry or by other means. In the States, this is done through their IRS and the credit bureau companies and it will come to Canada in the future. All of this means that a borrower can get firm approvals more efficiently (not having to download bank statements, get employment letters, etc.) and it will allow the professionals more time to provide advice and cater to the client’s needs.

The second benefit to borrowers is that the new applications are now able to receive documentation, communicate on application status in real time, and much more, all in one easy-to-use platform. It’s incumbent on the professional to make sure that their technologies and systems are properly integrated to provide a seamless, but better, mortgage experience for their clients.

To recap, technology will be playing a larger and larger role in how mortgages are obtained in the years to come, and in order to thrive in the 2020s, Mortgage Brokers and Realtors are going to have to use technology to the best of their abilities. The marriage between human interaction (building rapport) and providing a seamless experience through leveraging technology should dominate our thinking!

EITAN PINSKY

Dominion Lending Centres – Accredited Mortgage Professional
Eitan is part of DLC Origin Mortgages based in Vancouver, BC

6 Things all Co-signors should consider By Geoff Lee

General Krishna Menon 14 Jan

6 THINGS ALL CO-SIGNORS SHOULD CONSIDER

Co-signing on a loan may seem like an easy way to help a loved one (child, family member, friend, etc. ) live out their dream of owning a home. In today’s market conditions, a co-signor can offer a solution to overcome the high market prices and stress testing measure. For example, if you have a damaged credit score, not enough income, or another reason that a lender will not approve the mortgage loan, a co-signor addition on the loan can satisfy the lenders needs and lessen the risk associated with the loan. However, as a co-signor there are considerations.

If you act as a co-signor or guarantor, you are entrusting your entire credit history to the borrowers. What this mean is that late payments on the loan will not only hurt them, but it will also impact you.
Understand your current situations—taxes, legal, and estate. Co-signing is a large obligation that could harm you financially if the primary borrowers cannot pay.
Try to understand, upfront, how many years the co-borrower agreement will be in place and know if you can make changes to things mid-term if the borrower becomes able to assume the original mortgage on their own.
Consider the implications this will have regarding your personal income taxes. You may have an obligation to pay capital gains taxes and we would highly recommend talking to an accountant prior to signing off.
Co-signors should seek independent legal advice to ensure they fully understand their rights, obligations and the implications. A lawyer can lay it out clearly for you as well as help to point out any things you should take note of.
Carefully think about the character and stability of the people that you are being asked to co-sign for. Do you trust them? Are you aware of their financial situation to some degree? Are you willing to put yourself at risk potentially to take on this responsibility? Another consideration is to think about your finances down the road and determine how much flexibility will be needed for yourself and your family too! If you have plans of your own that will require a loan, refinancing your home, etc. being a co-signor can have an impact.

Co-signing for a loan is a large responsibility but when it is set-up correctly and all options are considered, it can be an excellent way to help a family member, child, or friend reach their dream of homeownership. If you are considering being a co-signor or wondering if you will require a co-signor on your mortgage, reach out to a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage professional. We are always happy to answer any questions and guide you through processes like this.

GEOFF LEE

Dominion Lending Centres – Accredited Mortgage Professional
Geoff is part of DLC GLM Mortgage Group based in Vancouver, BC.

Month: January 2020